These are based on varying assumptions about future population growth, health status, and NHS productivity. They all suggest that health spending will continue to take a growing proportion of GDP. The so called 'central projection' assumes year-on-year productivity growth of 2.2 per cent in health care. While in line with productivity gains in the wider economy, historically this represents an extremely ambitious goal (1).
Projected health spending
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility (2012). Report. Fiscal Sustainability report – July 2012
- Office for Budget Responsibility (2012). Report. Fiscal Sustainability report – July 2012