Long-term projections for UK health and social care spend

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – the independent body charged with producing government economic forecasts – has recently developed a range of scenarios for future health and social care spending.

These are based on varying assumptions about future population growth, health status, and NHS productivity. They all suggest that health spending will continue to take a growing proportion of GDP. The so called 'central projection' assumes year-on-year productivity growth of 2.2 per cent in health care. While in line with productivity gains in the wider economy, historically this represents an extremely ambitious goal (1).

Projected health spending

projected-health-spending.jpg

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility (2012). Report. Fiscal Sustainability report – July 2012

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References

  1. Office for Budget Responsibility (2012). Report. Fiscal Sustainability report – July 2012